A Computational Definition of ‘Consilience’
José Hernández-Orallo
Abstract
This paper defines in a formal and computational way the notion of ‘consilience’,
a term introduced by Whewell in 1847 for the evaluation of scientific theories.
Informally, as it has been used to date, a model or theory is ‘consilient’
if it is predictive, explanatory and unifies the evidence. Centred in a
constructive framework, where new terms can be introduced, we essay a formalisation
of the idea of unification based on the avoidance of ‘separation’. However,
it is soon manifest that this classical approach is vulnerable to the introduction
of fantastic concepts to unify disparate sub-theories. Our second approach
is constructed by using a detailed evaluation of the relationship between
the theory and the evidence by means of reinforcement propagation. With
the use of reinforcement, fantastic concepts can be better detected and
the role of consilience for theory construction and revision can be specialised
for different inference mechanisms like explanatory induction, abduction,
deduction and analogy.
Keywords: Consilience, Model and Theory Formation, Explanatory
Induction, Abduction, Reinforcement, Analogy, Coherence, Philosophy of
Science.
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